Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

There was excitement last night as Tory rebels planning to vote against the arguing mob that their government has become, were bought off by promises from an anxious May, as they jammed into her office in the Commons not long before the vote. Afterwards they thought they could take her at her word and voted with the government, enabling it to claim a victory. However it was not long before official and unofficial denials were being issued across Whitehall that any meaningful concession had been made. So now there is said to be simmering anger. Wow.

The problem is not actually who voted for what last night, nor what they will vote for today. The problem is that the EU does not know, the country does not know, the worlds of business, law, medicine, money and science do not know, indeed nobody knows, where the government is trying to get to or what Brexit will actually mean in practice. We in fact know less than we did at the beginning in June 2016. The reason for this historic state of universal don’t know, is because the government, whose raison d’etre is to know, still has no idea and whenever it gets an idea, it is either unworkable or it produces so much shouting around the cabinet table that it has to be abandoned.

So today the only thing we can know pretty much for sure is this. It may not end well. Not for anyone. But especially not for the government.

Whether you like Trump or hate him, or whether you like him some days and hate him others depending on his whims, no other president could have pulled off such a meeting. The key was chemistry between two showmen who, after trading insults and a string of military provocations, both see that the road to oblivion is not very attractive for anybody. On the other hand peace after decades of technically a state of war will bring huge benefits to all and, important for showmen, will make them megastars of history.

Each has given ground. Kim has stopped firing missiles, testing H bombs and has blown up some probably past their usefulness testing facilities. His stock of nuclear bombs and missiles to carry them remains. Nobody knows how many of which. Trump has stopped military exercises, but retains the biggest nuclear battle fleet ever assembled on station in Korean waters.

So what is special about this? It has been this blog’s view that the art of western diplomacy has become obsessed with practice, but neglectful of outcome. Thus, since the end of the cold war practically nothing has been resolved and much of the benefit offered by the easing of east west tensions has been squandered. Since 9/11 everything has failed to deliver on the promise. An obsession with democracy as the answer to everything has prolonged civil war in Syria and turned Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan into failed states, demanding never ending involvement in trying to sort out the consequences. Perversely a refusal to accept democratic process as legitimate has prolonged the now unending division of Ukraine which looks set on a sixty year stint of its own.

So Trump promised he would do it differently. He bypassed professional diplomats, ignored protocols. He turned his back on regime change, fair elections and human rights as preconditions for even holding talks about talks. Instead he relied upon the chemistry of leader to leader contact to find common interest and mutual benefit. First it worked with China, now it has made a spectacular start with North Korea. Russia is next. This US President applies the same principles to deals he does not like and trade which is not balanced. His western allies have cried out in dismay and expressed disappointment and upset. He has told them to get stuffed.

The American people were at first unsure of what they had done in electing a maverick to the White house, but polls show increasing popularity as Trump puts America first. Many of his domestic policies are popular and appear to be offering economic growth, even if down the track, they bring new problems of their own. So everybody will have to get used to change in the way things happen, the way things are done and the way things are judged. because one thing is now for sure. Trump himself will not change.