This blog returns from the holiday break with a few thoughts for 2018.
North Korea Kim Jon Un has declared in his New Year message that his country now has intercontinental nuclear armed missiles which can strike anywhere in the US. He also says that he will never use them to attack in a first strike, they are there to deter. He offers negotiations from a position of strength, with improved relations with South Korea, including a possible N.K Team appearance at the Winter Olympics. Whether he has jumped forward from reality to claim something which has not yet quite happened is not important. He is very close and by the time the rest of the world, led by the US, has huffed and puffed, he will have all the systems ready to go.
This means that the US will have to sit down and talk to a nuclear capable country which is not going to give up what it sees as a guarantee that it will not be subject to a surprise attack. North Korea is not Iran, which was working towards nuclear capability. It is threshold, or actually, capable now. The conversation will be about a permanent peace on the Korean peninsular, demilitarization, force reductions, US pull back, human rights, ending sanctions, you name it, the list will be long. But giving up its deterrent capability will not be on it.
How America got to this point is an interesting subject for discussion. But it matters not, because we are where we are. Had America spent less time lecturing and more time thinking, where we are might be a better place.
Brexit Whatever may be said by politicians, spinners and wishful thinkers, this project is now in trouble. There is a complete disconnect between what the government says it will achieve, what the Leave campaign promised and what the EU will agree to. GB thinks the economic self interest will finally trump political considerations and the EU will concede key issues in GB’s favour. This is tripe. The EU puts politics above everything, its unity is paramount, nothing will be allowed to threaten the current and future stability and unity of the EU and if that means the loss of all trade with GB so be it. It has agreed its terms and only at the margin will they be varied. Just like Phase One.
When the truth dawns and the terms are clear, hard Brexit will simply not be acceptable to the majority in parliament or to voters in the country. A soft Brexit would leave the UK subject to all the rules and enjoying all the benefits much as now, but without a seat at the ruling table. So we will abandon the project and stay. Either way the outcome is the same.
Populism and Democracy
There has been leaned comment about the wave of populism and the future of democracy in the run up to the close of the somewhat tumultuous political story of 2017. This blog does not see a threat to democracy, but it does see the demise of career politicians who promise, mislead and fail to deliver. People are now connected to each other in a way unimagined before. They share news from source and debate among themselves desired outcomes. They do not depend on the media or the political machines for any of it. They know what they want. They will vote for politicians who claim they can deliver and they will stay on their backs until they do. It is a different sort of democracy, but very much better.