Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Everyone knows what America thinks, even if the emphasis sometimes varies somewhat between Pentagon and White House. But China’s view is less well understood and it is China which  holds the key to the North Korea nuclear crisis. In fact China is as fed up as everybody else with its neighbour, but has a lot less influence over Pyongyang that we think on this issue. Put simply Kim Jon Un will allow nothing to halt his determination to secure his state from hostile action to effect regime change by the United States and its allies. So even if China were to halt all trade with North Korea, although the NK people might starve, the leadership would not and the military position would remain unchanged.

China does not want fighting on the Korean peninsular. It does not want a war which would leave South Korea victorious and ruling over a united Korea in the style of unified Germany. It does not want North Korea to collapse into a failed state Middle Eastern style, leading to a diaspora of refugees pouring across its borders. It wants to reduce the military involvement of the United States in the region, not increase it.

But Beijing certainly does not want a nuclear armed neighbour without any structural political system underpinning its government, which could be relied upon to restrain the current mercurial leader or any future hothead. China’s aim is peace between North and South and a demilitarized Korean peninsular. Few anywhere, even in America, can disagree with such an ambition. China needs to redouble its efforts to this end in a way that convinces Pyongyang of its determination to enable a fair settlement. America, while keeping up the military pressure to convince Kim Jon Un he cannot win any more than he already has and is now at the limit of his reach, must give China the chance to do that.

President Putin has said, correctly, that the NK’s would rather eat grass than give up their nuclear weapons. So trade sanctions of whatever sort are futile.  The latest threat to halt trade between the US and any country which trades with China is ill conceived and impossible to implement without major damage to US economic interests.

Most NK trade is with China, so to have any semblance of a threat that is not laughable to Pyongyang, the US embargo would have to apply to China. That would be a near disaster to the American airplane industry, American farmers, the info tech industries and more. It would be ignored by the UK, Germany, France and Russia, as well as dozens of other countries, who have trading ties with China. So it is a pointless proposal which will achieve no more than all its predecessor sanctions.

The plain fact is nothing and nobody will stop the North Koreans in their project to obtain nuclear military power, other than their destruction or through negotiations which somehow give them the security they want. Remember in order to get Khrushchev to remove Soviet missiles from Cuba, Kennedy had to pull US missiles out of Turkey. But he judged it a better option than oblivion.

The situation with North Korea has, over many decades, been allowed to get out of control. It is not the fault of the current generation of politicians but it is their call now. There are two options only. Talk or fight. We know what Kennedy chose. That is why we are still here.