Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Starting with the caveat that no agreement of whatever type in Syria has so far had a shelf life which can be counted even in hours, this does look like a game changer. It is a triumph for Putin, who has stepped in to fill the vacuum caused by the chaotic state of western diplomacy in the Middle East. It is also a success for the modernized Russian military doctrine of fighting wars smart, hard and fast. It took them just over a year. America, Britain and bits of NATO are blundering about still, 15 years after going into Iraq. It puts Russia firmly in the driving seat and is politically astonishing because Turkey is a NATO member. Unlike the West which has an agglomeration of so called allies who defy every standard of human rights it holds dear and covertly work against its interests, Russia has just two, Turkey and Iran. Even more interesting is that Turkey wants to overthrow Assad while Russia supports him.

So where does this leave the West?  Hopefully humbly rejoicing that at least the worst bloodshed may be over, trying now to get a combined approach with these new power brokers to deal with IS and watching Twitter to see what happens next.

Where’s Boris?

There is emerging a much more strident Jeremy Corbyn. His Commons performance has been upgraded to a more combative style and his interview in the Guardian demonstrates a willingness to attack much more vigorously the issues of the day. Apparently this is a deliberate move to transfer his popularity among his core supporters into recognition and acceptance across the wider electorate. To win an election, the majority of voters must see the Labour leader as the agent of change, because that is why they vote Labour, but that change has to be both credible and supportable. Above all it has to be the kind of change which millions who feel ignored connect to, because it is in those legions of non voters, or fringe party protest votes, that any major victory lies.

His quip that Theresa May is not Henry VIII and that she has to bring the final terms of the Brexit negotiations (if it all happens) to Parliament for approval is very much to the point. The deal has to be approved by the European parliament so you would expect even Brexiteers would support our own parliament exercising the very sovereignty they campaigned to repatriate. Corbyn is onto a winner here.  Maybe these changes of style are why there is a hint of Labour advancing in the latest polls.