Blog 2023 Malcolm Blair-Robinson

Trident and Related Matters

It is a very good thing that George Osborne has told the MOD that if it wants to upgrade Trident it will have to pay for it. This will concentrate minds on the fact that realism must be the basis of the Defence Review.

I have given a lot of thought to this over the last few months and stimulated this with some research. I now have a clear idea of where we should be headed. Britain must concentrate its armed forces for its own defence. This includes its vital interests but does not include pretending our true boundaries are in the mountains of some far off continent. We are not a  military superpower and we do not need a global projection capability.

The Army needs to be re-organised to provide home defence and support of other agencies in times of national emergency whether caused by enemy threat, terrorists, disasters, weather or disease. It needs to have a rescue capabilty in hostage or other situations involving British citizens overseas, but it does not need to prepare to take part in invasions or fight foreign wars. This whole Blair generated adventure with overt use of armed force overseas has been a disaster, the magnitude of which an unforgiving history will show.

The Navy should have the role of defending our approaches and home waters as well as keeping our vital trade routes open. Its capital ships should be the type 45 Daring class destroyers, among the world’s most advanced warships, and the new mega capable Astute class  submarines. The latter can form the platform for our better focused nuclear deterrent, but the type 45s can also have nuclear tipped cruise missiles on board if needed. Trident should be phased out and a way must be found for cancellation of the unaffordable giant aircraft carriers, already specified sub standard with steam turbines because we cannot afford nuclear power plants. Maybe they could become humanitarian aid and rescue platforms paid for by the U.N., or a NATO or a joint Euro project. We need lots of small, cheap, fast anti-submarine and anti-missile frigates which can ring our shores and probe the Atlantic approaches, blowing up anything under the sea or in the air which threatens our island homeland. Not lumbering bumble bees, but fast and agile wasps.

In WWII we essentially had two world class aircraft which led the considerable fleet of others not as good. These were the Spitfire and the Lancaster. Now the RAF need just the one, apart from support and transport workhorses. This should be a flexible fighter, missile armed for ground or air, which we can afford in large enough numbers to guarantee the integrity of our airspace from whatever kind of threat can come from the sky. We may need to add anti-missile batteries on the ground capable of dealing with wild card rockets fired by rogue states, rather than MIRV type mega weapons.

Finally, this is the most dramatic bit, we need to shut down the Ministry of Defence. It has been a spendthrift shambles from the beginning. We did not fight either of the world wars with this bureaucratic leviathan, which cannot even add up the cost of its programmes or keep track of its money. We should go back to focused Ministries (not sprawling departments). A small Air Ministry, Army Ministry (the old title War Office is very non pc) and a revived Admiralty would again serve us very much better and at much less cost.

Anybody who tells you that bigger is better, more efficient, more effective or cheaper has either had their eyes closed as all these super departments have devloped over the years, or they have an axe to grind or they are fools or all of those things in combination. Smaller, more focussed, leaner, keener ministries would greatly improve the value and efficiency of government generally and defence is a good place to start. Not only will we save money but we will have both a credible deterrent and a viable, secure defence. Our streets will be safer and the heroic citizens of Wooten Bassett, who have stood proxy for the nation’s gratitude and grief week after week, month after month, year after year, will be able to get on with their everyday lives.

Banks in Profit

This week the Banks will be announcing their first half profits which are predicted to be much higher than more recent figures. HSBC, which did not directly involve itself in taxpayer loans, though benefited indirectly from the whole industry wide rescue package, is first up with a big jump. This has provoked the refrain from Osborne et al that banks must lend more to business.

In the round I agree, but I do not think it is as clear as that. The banks have to mend their ways from past follies and strengthen their own financial base. This means bigger reserves and wiser lending. Wiser lending is more cautious lending. That means not supporting daft or fanciful propositions. It also means a risk premium. If this recovery is going to gather momentum and remain sound, it will be built on sound business. A big start up bubble with lavish funding of businesses, without a model which will work, a product with a market, or management that knows it stuff will do no more  than create another credit boom of the style to which we are addicted, followed by another spectacular bust. 

So whilst supporting the call to boost business, I support caution in how it’s done. What is needed is the much talked about, but not yet happened, separation of proprietary trading by banks and the restoration of something akin to the old Merchant Bank. The bits are all there but they are mixed up in one pot. There is a Commission looking into this. The Coalition should have been more assertive and got on with it without another enquiry. It is a pity Vince was forced into an appeasement deal to calm certain vested interests in the City. There was no need. Now that the U.S has enacted its own legislation those people stand on low lying ground with an incoming tide. They know they will have to get into the boat sooner or later.

There is another point. Banks (real ones as opposed to building societies calling themselves banks) need to be less balanced in favour of property and more focused on business and industry. We keep getting to the point where a property boom is the spark igniting a slump. It happened to Heath and Barber, to Thatcher and Lawson then Major, and of course to Blair and Brown, or better said Brown Brown and Brown. We are slow to learn. We need to sharpen up.