For the West with its catastrophic record of foreign policy failures, especially in the Middle East and Afghanistan, the Russian engagement in Syria and now the surprise partial withdrawal is an object lesson to watch. Russia has had bases in Syria more or less since the end of WWII and when it looked on the cards that the Assad regime might crumble, opening the way for an Islamic State takeover, Russia decided to intervene directly rather than to just support Assad. Within six months there has been a fundamental change in the dynamics of the war. Russia benefits from continuity of government in which three key players have worked together, surrounded by very competent staff, over the years since Yeltsin; Putin, Lavrov and Medvedev.
First came the military intervention which turned the tide in favour of the regime and put pressure on the moderate opposition to begin talks. Next the talks are set up and a cease fire is agreed which holds better than expected under Russian supervision. Finally the surprise end to the air campaign and withdrawal of some forces, to encourage the talks to get under way. Within these actions lie certain key objectives. One is to make certain that the Syrian state does not collapse like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan. This is important to secure the long standing Russian military foothold in the Mediterranean. The second is to warn Assad that if he digs his heels in too deep, Russia is willing to dump him. It already has a list of possible successors from within the regime. The third is to reassert Russia as a player on the world stage in its own right after years of marginalisation by the West, which Russia accuses of a string of misjudgements and failures to learn lessons.
Russian caution in bombing Islamic State, in spite of the downing of the Russian airliner, is partly to avoid IS moving north into Chechnya and partly to leave a potent threat to Assad in place to stop him thinking he can manage alone. It has learned its own lessons from the abortive Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and the ability of groups like the Mojahedin and Al-Qaeda to morph and move. But all this is designed to further its goal to become a voice on the world stage once more. Not in the Soviet ambition of world domination which it knows is a mirage of the past, but as a modern player which demonstrates that the USA is not the only kid on the block of whom note has to be taken.