There are reports that some deal has been sorted to put to the Heads of Government Summit a complex selection of red cards and emergency breaks, supposedly to address the notion of a new settlement of Britain’s place in and relationship with, the EU. Cameron is set to hail the whole thing as a triumph and the basis on which he and most of his government (not all of it) can recommend to the country that it votes to remain in Europe.
Unfortunately an error in tactics only now becoming clear means that it is very likely that the vote will not be on the principle but on the terms. That could prove to be a disaster, because it will be much easier to dismiss them as silly, convoluted, even unworkable and a far cry from the return of sovereignty promised, than to sell them as a positive change for the better.
Referenda are notorious for ending up as a vote on something other than the question on the ballot paper and this is now a very real risk. Not least because put under the campaign microscope, the terms, like all of the European bureaucracy, will look pretty ridiculous to rational thinking people. The majority could then vote against them and the country will find itself out of Europe.