This Blog is emotionally pro-Europe. You cannot come from a family split by war, cut off from its ancestral home, and shrunk by killing, and not be in awe of the fact that the continent which, twice in the last hundred years, has been torn apart by the biggest and most brutal wars in history, is now at peace. Or that once every few years every citizen of a union embracing twenty-seven countries goes to the polls to elect a common parliament for all. Or that as a citizen of that union I may go without let or hindrance to any country visa free to holiday, work or live. The facts that more migrants come here than go there, that the parliament is hobbled, that decisions are slow to come by, that governance is multi headed and all the other things we know about or have yet to discover are not quite right, is to me neither here nor there.
I accept that deep though my emotional attachment to the European dream runs, so there are many driven by the opposite current; we are an island nation who have spread our influence, our genes and our language to every corner of the globe and we prefer to make our own decisions about how, why where and when and also with whom.
It is about these two attitudes, deep but honourable either way, that this upcoming vote, to remain or leave, is about. It is not about migration or regulations or opt outs and emergency brakes nor any of the other Euro jargon peppering the political media. It is quite simple. Either you want to belong to this Union, because you believe that it is a force for peace and harmony and the values now shared by more than ever before in history, or you think maybe it is fine for them, but it is not for us. And it is on that basis and that basis alone we should be asked to vote.
As it is Cameron’s delicate dance through the prejudiced halls of his own Tory party, trying to satisfy both opposing wings at once, has led him and us to a very bad place. Whether he gets what he wants or not, and the outcome is far from certain, it will satisfy nobody who wants to leave, but it will throw doubt into the hearts of many who were minded to stay. That will increase the risk of a victory to leave. If that happens we shall end the year on our way out of the greatest political unification of opposing forces in history, and the world’s largest single market. Nobody has a plan or even a clue what will happen then. There is already a menu in preparation. Scotland will likely detach from the United Kingdom and the confusion and uncertainty will spook markets and business and bring upon these islands a dark economic night.
The new American President, whoever he or she is, will have top of the smart new in tray in the Oval Office the issue of its oldest alloy wandering alone in an economic no man’s land and busting apart. It will not be the first time that the New World has had to dig the Old out of a hole. The prospect is, however, a welcome crumb of comfort to this Blog.