To most Europeans Donald Trump has for long been a figure of fun. Rich certainly, but still a bit of a clown. It is now beginning to dawn upon them that the only thing standing between him and becoming President of United States is a lady; Hilary Clinton. For if the polls are to be believed, and experience here last May says they should not be, he is way out ahead for the Republican nomination. We will know soon enough. The first primaries start with the Iowa Caucus next month, after which a pattern will emerge. Americans may decide, Republicans that is, that the joke has gone far enough, and that it is time to back a candidate who looks like a credible President. Um yes. Who exactly?
Here is the problem. Trump is popular because he is anti-Washington and anti-federal Government; put simply he is not a politician and he is ant-politics. And in America there is and always has been a significant antipathy to the notion of Federal Government. It erupted into the American Civil War, so strong does the antipathy run through America’s veins. The cause of that war was afterwards declared to be the ending of slavery and because slaves were freed, it followed that the schism was healed. But the cause of the war was not slavery, it was Secession from the Union and the dislike of Americans to being bossed around by far away Washington remains part of the culture and a much bigger part than most will admit.
It is therefore the case that Trump is no longer a funny. He is the one to beat. It may well be that one of the unknowns lined up for the Republican nomination will emerge; the only one known in Europe is Jeb Bush and he seems to be floundering about. Or it may be that the unthinkable happens and Trump gets nominated. If he does, then maybe it will be a Goldwater moment, the ultra conservative right winger, who was beaten by Lyndon Johnson in a landslide. Or it could be President Trump. Then what? Celebrations in the Kremlin because Putin likes him quite a lot.