Household Debt

Britain has one of the highest levels of household debt worldwide. Economists tend to remark, in the midst of the global market uncertainties, that because the UK economy in centred on home consumption, we are insulated to a degree from what goes on in the rest of the world. That is true in itself but it ignores a critical flaw in the economic model. The consumption is fuelled by household debt and this, having reduced in the recession, is now rising again and is set to pass its previous peak.

Moreover the economy is predicted to grow less than Osborne forecast, because of the China slowdown, drop in the oil price, headwinds et al. We seem to be getting very close to where we started. The end of a boom (such as it has been) followed by a bust. It is not inevitable but unless Osborne changes course it is very likely.

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