It is reported that Corbyn has emailed his members asking them to give their views on Cameron’s bombing plans. With his Shadow Cabinet in open revolt and briefing against him, senior government ministers openly ringing Labour MPs, as if they were their own, and a chorus of calls for him to quit, nobody can say convincingly that the Labour leader has not got problems. It is the view of this blog that his position on bombing Syria is the correct one and that no convincing case has been made for extending the UK bombing campaign.
Already Russia, France and the US are bombing 24/7 and it appears to be having very little effect on IS; indeed it has triggered an increase in terrorist activity by its adherents outside the bombed area. Moreover there is quite a bit of intelligence which suggests that most of the IS leadership is now removed to Mosul in Iraq. If this is the case Cameron’s head of the snake is within the range of his bombers anyway. The problem is that they are also in range of the innocent civilians among whom the IS fighters and leaders hide. This is why bombing only works if it is in support of advancing ground forces. Whatever Cameron says about 70,000 fighters, there is no such disciplined and coordinated force in existence. The only reliable military force is the Assad led, Russian armed Syrian army. Cameron does not like them.
The truth is that unless Cameron has taken leave of his senses, he knows the only likely impact of UK bombing in Syria is to raise the risk of a terrorist outrage in the UK. But he is willing to take that risk and mislead everybody about it, because he wants to be in on the Syrian political settlement as a star player. If he does not get his bombing mandate he fears the decisions will be taken by the US, Russia and France. That’s what this is about.
Corbyn knows that. Whether he can persuade enough of his party membership and the wider public to back him will determine the survival of his leadership. The parliamentary Labour party is out to get him for sure.