Not quite perhaps, but nearly. The problem is simple. The party members and supporters have chosen, and polls of them indicate they approve of, Jeremy Corbyn, by a democratic margin which is overwhelming. He stands far to the left of what was once called New Labour. The majority of Labour MPs are of the New Labour brand. For some it is their only adult political experience. The shadow cabinet is mostly drawn from their ranks. Prior to the leadership election disaster as they see it, most of them regarded Corbyn as a well meaning crank. Let us pause a moment to look at the political make up of the House of Commons as a whole.
There are two coherent parties of government in the lower House, one, the Tories, governs the UK with a small majority and England where they have a big majority. The SNP governs in Scotland. Labour is in confusion because of the Corbyn problem as they see it and although it is the official opposition, it is at some levels dysfunctional. Yet it is also in political terms very successful. It has managed to lead a substantial attack on aspects of economic policy which the government has had to abandon; the tax credit issue and cuts in police funding. The reason for this is that if you abandon party labels and consider only the members, there is a left leaning majority in the commons on social issues. This is because all parts of Labour, the remaining handful of Lib Dems, the SNP and most MPs from the smaller parties lean left. So do a score or more post Thatcher Tories of the last two intakes, who see their first loyalty to their constituents rather than their party.
The political relationships are further complicated by the fact that maybe seventy or more Labour MPs are much closer to the Tories than their own Leader or party membership. In fact there is only a political cigarette paper between them and Cameron and even less than that with Osborne. Between this group and their Leader, with his spectacular popular mandate, there is an unbridgeable chasm. The easy way forward would be for those to resign from Labour and take the Tory whip. Although this would give the Tory party a big working majority, the Government would still need to take account of its now much larger left wing when hatching plans to hit the poor.
Corbyn would then head a smaller but closer knit Opposition made up of those very few who voted for him and those willing to accept the wishes of their party membership. If he then makes a go of things he will be well placed in 2020 to head for quick gains in the turncoat seats as well as gains across the board. That will mean the Osborne economic plan has not worked out and people are ready for a radical turn left and a change of political weather. Of course if Cameron’s bombs bring peace and tranquillity and Osborne gets his sums and forecasts right, he has a 55% statistical chance of doing so based on his own record thus far, then Corbyn will join Foot in the hated gallery of electoral disasters.
But unless Corbyn right now reads the riot act and instils discipline into a parliamentary party out of control, even if the result is half of them leave, he will be denied even the opportunity for that. For at the end of the day Brits forgive cranks and turncoats (Churchill made crossing the floor of the House a signature manoeuvre) but there is one thing they will not abide. Weak leadership. The thing they love most of all is strong leaders who are willing to stand alone. It is from that small group that all their heroes are drawn.