They were slaughtered at the general election for three reasons. The first was that the young could not forgive them for breaking their solemn pledge not to increase tuition fees. The second was that their former Labour supporters who voted Lib Dem in 2010 could not forgive them for joining up with the Tories. Finally the Tories said to their people ‘ you will get us anyway so why not vote for the real thing?’
Since WWII the Liberals have struggled to break through. They began to advance when Tory voters, who felt their party had imploded in the post Thatcher era, could not bring themselves to vote for Blair. In 2005 they reached their high water mark of 62 seats because many left wing Labour voters stopped voting for Blair, having seen that New Labour was little more than pink Thatcherism. The number of potential voters who believe in ‘Liberalism’ has not for decades been sufficient to get even the reinvigorated party anywhere on its own. It needs at least defections from one or the other of the two main parties, preferably from both, together with a favourable voting distribution.
The challenge is made the more daunting with the unstoppable rise of the SNP, the improving image of Plaid Cymru, the shift of the centre to the left and of the Tories to the centre, UKIP and the Greens and what looks like a re-energised Labour movement under Corbyn. Their feisty new leader, Tim Fallon, will fire them up to go, but exactly where may have to wait upon events.
The biggest problem of all, but also the biggest opportunity, lies in the disconnect between seats and votes for a third party. Here are the voting figures for the last ten elections and the seats won.
1974 5,346704 13 1979 4,313804 11 1983 7,780949 23 1987 7,341651 22
1992 5,999606 20 1997 5,242947 46 2001 4,814321 52 2005 5,985454 62
2010 6,836198 57 2015 2,415888 8
Study the figures and you will see how the party can increase seats and lose votes at the same time. It is all in the distribution. Between 1983 and 2005 the Lib Dems (starting as the SDP/Liberal Alliance) lost 2 million votes but increased their seats from 23 to 62. Their 2015 tally was the lowest Liberal vote since 1970, when they won six seats. Wishful thinking will lead them to hope for defections from Corbyn’s Labour in parliament. It is unlikely to happen but when it did in the Foot era, almost all of them lost their seats. Dissident New Labour MPs would be better advised to cross to the Tories, with whom they have much if not most in common, especially if they want to advance their careers.
For Tim Farron this is an opportunity to shine. It can only get better, since if it get’s worse there will be nothing.