The shocking news from Tunisia has stunned the country. One can only imagine the torment of those who cannot yet establish the fate of loved ones, or the anguish of those bereaved. The emotional scars of those who escaped will be long lasting. For Tunisia this is a disaster because it will frighten tourists away. This is the IS plan. A single gunmen can cause a ruined economy. If it does not work the first time, do it again. So few will dare go back and if they do they will run a risk which may not be worth taking.
I recall going to Mexico at a time when guerrillas were on the rampage taking hostages and committing atrocities. The hotel grounds were patrolled by the military and all along the beach were tall watch towers manned by security forces with machine guns. We felt safe and there were not then and never were in future any outrages in that area. There may be a lesson her for Tunisia.
All the interventions thus far made by the UK and its allies have failed and done more harm than good. Yet Tunisia is the only Arab Spring country apart from Egypt with a functioning government and the only one which fully embraces democracy. It may be possible with the aid of UK Special forces and even some ground troops to create safe areas where the tourist industry can still operate in defiance of the IS threat. That would help the Tunisian economy and encourage its people to press forward. It is at least worth looking at.
There is something else too. IS is not the kind of organisation which can be destroyed in battle. It will morph into something else if it loses its power base and suffers a major reverse. The diplomatic reality, as this blog has pointed out before, is that our main allies in confronting it are Iran and Russia. We need to bring the nuclear negotiations with Iran along a realistic path to an acceptable compromise and conclusion. We need also to start mending fences with Russia. Europe is no longer in any condition to pick fights and withstand the effect of its own sanctions; it is has far too many problems of its own making to cope with. Sooner or later we will have to start talking to IS. In secret of course.