Europe: How is Cameron Doing?

Cameron’s position on Europe is interesting. It is reported that he now accepts there will be no treaty changes until after the in out referendum and that those treaty changes will have to be agreed by all the other national parliaments and by referenda in three countries as well. How on earth anybody can be certain that everything will go through after we have voted to stay in makes a Yes campaign on such terms ridiculous, and if we vote No and leave the whole project will be abandoned anyway.

So what is available? Let us first get rid of a false hope. ‘Legally binding’ undertakings to change treaties later are pointless because nobody has the authority to do it. As stated above treaty changes would be subject to both parliamentary and referendum processes and only one country has to stall to wreck the project.

So Cameron has to work within existing treaties and the flexibility to adjust at their margins, to achieve cast iron proposals which he can put to the country. To satisfy the No campaign these would have to be dramatic; but to bolster the Yes vote to victory would require a good deal less. Stopping benefit tourism, improving governance and separating the very necessary ever closer union of the Eurozone from the working of the wider EU would be enough. Countries within the EU using national currencies would enjoy a good deal more authority in their national parliaments than those bound to the common currency. These countries would be lead by Britain, whereas Euroland would bow to Germany.

The fact that the latest meeting of Heads of Government went on till 3 am with furious rows over migration unresolved (a formula which is voluntary and only covers 40,000 is meaningless and was a device to allow people to get to bed), Greece and the Euro still in the air, and a speech by Cameron merely formalizing what he had already explained to all of them individually hailed as progress, is confirmation in spades that not only the Euro, but the EU itself has a doubtful future if it carries on like this. The heads of government are not fools, although there are times when one wonders, and they see that change is needed. Indeed most are supportive of change in principle, but nobody agrees on the substance.

And this is the problem of the dysfunction of the EU. Everybody agrees the principles, nobody agrees the details and no one is authorised to decide. All of this can be made much better within the existing frameworks without treaty changes, although greater improvements can be incorporated into new treaties which will be needed to draw the eurozone into closer union. If nothing is done there is now a much stronger possibility, because of the mounting intray of unresolved issues which are kicked like a can down a road to nowhere, that Britain, in spite of Cameron’s efforts, will vote No. If that happens France will be next.

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