The new parliament will be interesting. We will know more after the Queen’s Speech tomorrow. Much of it has been trailed in advance, but there will be some surprises. What will be really interesting is the dynamics of the parliament itself. Because this is the first parliament in which the United Kingdom is truly aware that the whole is made up of four constituent nations, and each of those is dominated by a different political party. So the term opposition will mean different things at different times and the scope for an opposition coalition to cause problems as the parliament advances could be quite significant. ‘We will back you against this if you support us against that.’
Overall Cameron has a majority of twelve , but he has more than a hundred in England alone. Prophesies that it will all turn pear shaped for him are not likely to be realistic, but the rise of the Scot Nats as a unifying force of the left should not be underestimated either. For the moment neither Labour nor the Lib Dems have a leader; in the latter case there is little left to lead. But watch Harriet Harman.