To answer that we need to look beneath the surface. The clues are to be found with two women. Christine Lagarde of the IMF and Nicola Sturgeon of the SNP. Christine Lagarde’s intervention yesterday to endorse the economic plan followed by the Coalition and offer a helping hand to Osborne in the process will delight the Tories who will spin it everywhere, but it will not affect the outcome. This is because those voters who worry about the IMF’s opinions are going to vote Tory anyway and the rest either don’t even know what the organisation does or do not care what it says, or both.
The clash between Nicola Sturgeon and Ed Milliband was the highlight of last night’s debate and each gained the point they needed to make. In terms of snap polls Ed came out just ahead of Nicola. Ed gave an uncompromising performance rebuffing Nicola’s overtures to join up an anti Cameron coalition and in doing so destroyed the notion that he would be in the pocket of the SNP. Ridiculing (and insulting) Milliband was the central nasty theme of the Tory campaign put together by their Australian guru. It offended the British sense of fair play and ensured that Ed was seen as the underdog. Brits love underdogs. Ed’s stock is rising fast with every new poll. He is also a much tougher opponent than anyone expected and has energised the Labour campaign.
Nicola had a big success too. She has given the SNP a role outside Scotland as the cheerleader for an end to austerity in the UK as a whole. She is backed by most Labour voters in that role and has given substance to the idea of an anti austerity majority in the Commons. This would include Plaid Cymru and the DUP as well as the LIB Dems who are gaining ground with their opposition to the Tory cuts programme and the halt in UKIP’s rise. Farage did not shine in the debate last night.
And the dynamic which is beginning to emerge in this peculiar election is that there is a majority in the country that is against more dogmatic austerity. Nicola’s performances in three debates have helped to bring that about. If tactical voting is used in its favour on May 7th, the Tories will lose. The maths is against them now. Their only hope is the effect of the minor parties splitting the anti austerity vote in a first past the post electoral system. That is now their only hope and it may not be in vain.