To talk about the beginning of something which has been going on for months already is rather confusing. In actual fact so far only those who are engaged in politics or commentate on them have really been taking much notice. Parliament is dissolved today and this means that there are no longer any MPs. Government continues and ministers remain in office because they are the Queen’s ministers and not parliament’s. They will remain in office until a new government is formed after the election and that may not be right away. With so many parties in contention and with a first past the post electoral system it is literally beyond guessing even for the pollsters. An example of the potential for forecasting error is that the two main opinion polls out yesterday produced mirror opposite results. One gave a four point lead to the Tories another the same lead to Labour.
Nevertheless we can expect more public engagement now that the argument shifts from Westminster to the constituencies where most MPs will be fighting to hold onto their seats. They no longer have access to all the goodies of the Palace of Westminster; the are now civilians out on their own in thrall to their local party organisations and they are much more focused on doorstep issues than grand plans and big pictures. In this multi party election, opinion may not begin to form into a trend until about three weeks before polling day and real election fever will be late arriving; probably in the last week. Given that the parties are neck and neck, both the big two will hope to break free into a convincing lead. That may or may not happen.
So far this blog notes that after the first ‘once removed’ style debate, Milliband probably gained more personally than Cameron and that both parties are annoying voters by being opaque about the numbers. Billions are flying around but the public wants to know which billions and where are they going. So far there is little hard evidence to answer their concerns. There is a growing suspicion that actually nobody knows. Quoting forecasts is one thing, but with the British, whose unpredictable climate makes them forecast savvy, it is not the forecast they are voting for, but the true financial weather for the coming days of their lives.