Polls: Where Do They Point?

The averages weighted and adjusted to a variety of methodologies point to the Tories being the largest party and Labour a close second. But, and here is the problem, neither party will have enough to form a coalition with another single party, notwithstanding that the party leaders are ruling out coalitions in an orgy of wishful thinking. Tory and Lib Dems together fall short, as do Labour and Scot Nats. So at least three parties would be needed. Labour, Scot Nat and Lib Dem is one possibility. The Tories have more of a problem because there is not a third party with potentially enough seats to bridge the gap, so Cameron would have to scoop up all sorts to get a majority. Labour would find it easier.

But it gets even more complicated than it appears, which says something. Cameron as leader of the largest party will be given first shot. He may decide to offer a minority government and hope to operate issue by issue or on a confidence and supply deal with all the minor players. However a sure footed Milliband might be able to get enough support to defeat him on the first Queens Speech, opening the way for a Milliband try. Even if he then succeeds, the Tories may have a majority of English votes, sufficient to block Labour on all sorts of domestic legislation. Whatever words you use to describe such uncertainty and muddle if it happens, traditional strong British government cannot be among them.

And that is the point. We are approaching pay back time for the complete folly of rejecting the AV voting system which would have taken care of all of this at the count and delivered a clear outcome. That would have been the one for which the most people had voted, even if not all the votes were first choice. Now, if we get a stable government at all and that is by no means certain, it will likely be one most people have voted against. You can use any word you like to describe that, as long as it is not democracy.