Ukraine: Will the Fighting Stop?

The peace talks in Minsk appear to be at a crucial, perhaps fragile, stage. Agreement and collapse seem equally likely. One of the sticking points will be the border with Russia. Kiev will want to control this to prevent seepage of Russian weapons and volunteers to strengthen the separatist army and threaten further annexation of Ukrainian territory. The separatists will want control of the border themselves to keep open their lifeline and escape route, without which they are surrounded by hostile forces and cut off.

All of the problems in Ukraine are typical of the leftovers of the break up of an empire, in this case the Soviet. Countries previously part of one united entity find themselves separated and independent, but inhabited by populations of mixed origins and loyalties. Sometimes differences can be reconciled, sometimes not. Once fighting breaks out and thousands die reconciliation becomes even more difficult. It may be that two entities is the only way open, whatever the wishes to the contrary. Essentially it may be that those who see themselves as Russian will have to be closer to Moscow than Kiev. Kiev would not be entirely blameless in such an outcome.

This is the basis of the UK continuing to control a part of Ireland, Gibraltar and the Falklands. Examples of a more independent type of separation of one previous entity are India and Pakistan or the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The only thing that seems clear about Ukraine is that to return to its unitary status of before the uprising and violence will be impossible. Federation would be the next best thing but the bitterness in the eastern provinces may make even that unworkable. A frozen stand off with a buffer zone, with no more fighting and people able to return home and go about normal lives free of fear of bombardment and death from whatever quarter, may be the best that can be hoped for.

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