To answer that question we need to ask are the Tories winning? The answer to that is that they do not have to. Their realistic aim is not to lose. If they hold what they have, Cameron will still be Prime Minister although the make-up of his government may be different. He may have to do a deal with UKIP and the Democratic Unionists on a confidence and supply basis, or there could be just enough Lib Dems left to give him a wafer thin majority for a revived coalition.
On the other hand Labour have to advance. They have to win lots of seats. Running neck and neck with the Tories in the opinion polls is nowhere near good enough. And if they lose almost all their Scottish seats, as every opinion poll north of the border presently predicts they will, then they have to win loads of seats in England and Wales to make up for it, even to stay where they are.
And where they are is the wrong place to be. Widely regarded as a potent opposition, good at making the political weather on issues which catch public attention, it now clear to impartial observers that Milliband and Balls look a lot less like leaders of a government than Cameron and Osborne. This is not likely to change. Labour has failed to build a big narrative to inspire support and it is too late now to do so. It can only bang on and hope. But the prospect may not be hopeless.
There are so many jokers in the pack at this election than the most worthy analysis can be wide off the mark. Nobody knows how first past the post (a ridiculous voting system in other than a two party state) will work with UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens all pulling votes from the two main parties. This could throw up wild card gains and losses which nobody expects.
Labour must hope it emerges from that confusion in better shape than the Tories. But to do so it has to come up with a good deal more than hysteria about the NHS.