This Blog has long held the view that the outcome, which Thatcher feared when the two Germanys became one after the fall of the Wall, has happened. Germany is the power in Europe. Exasperated by the continuous histrionics about all that does not suit Britain in the EU, Merkel has finally spoken. This is not just about Britain, it is about the whole of the EU. The EU has its principles and Germany will guard them. Among many, one is special. The free movement of people within a free market. That will not change. If you do not like it you can go. Put crudely the message is knuckle down or piss off.
So here we are at last. Britain has to stay in Europe on Germany’s terms. Farage will be thrilled because this makes a vote to leave in a referendum a real possibility. But wait. The British people are a good deal more savvy than their politicians. They know one or two important things. The first is Germany may be right; rules are rules and freedom to go all over Europe brings great benefits to all Brits. The leave Europe camp have a fantasy that Britain will get a trade agreement with the EU which does not require that we adhere to all EU rules about everything; this is as big a non runner as Alex Salmond’s currency union and people know that. The leave Europe camp has no clear idea of an alternative economic path for Britain to tread. Finally if Britain did in fact vote to leave, this would trigger another referendum in Scotland and the Scots would for sure vote to quit the UK.
So we would be back to little England. But then again maybe not. The British did not get to where they did by being silly. Farage may prove to be England’s Salmond, Cameron and the Tory Right may be humiliated and the Brits may see in Merkel a leader with more merit than their own. It has happened before. When the Royal Stuarts finally failed, the Brits chose a German as King.