There is now a real momentum in the Yes campaign, which crosses political divides and families. It is a momentum of hope and adventure in a spirit of can do. This ought to be countered in the No campaign by a celebration of Scotland’s golden age of influence prosperity and freedom since it has been in the Union. But it isn’t. Instead the No campaign is bogged down in its opening chapter, which is negative and risk averse. This was right for the start but wrong for the end. This may cost No the victory everyone thought was in the bag.
If it does and Yes wins, the effect on Scotland politically will be a lot less than the impact on England. In Scotland Alex Salmond will remain in power and whatever form of currency deal he manages to negotiate will leave Scotland with little more autonomy economically than it now has anyway. Even if he loses his next election, Labour will win and Labour is the traditional party of Scotland.
But south of the border the whole political map will change. Without Labour’s forty plus MP’s the chances of a Milliband outright win in 2015 become odds on against. The more likely is a Camaron win or a Cameron/Farage coalition. Not only will leftist Edinburgh be under the thumb of right wing London, but the chances of a vote to leave the EU going Yes increase significantly. This would mean a detachment from Scotland and a detachment from Europe putting England back to where it was a the time of Elizabeth I.
September is going to be very interesting. In October comes Clacton. By Christmas the United Kingdom could not only face breaking apart, but also an English political revolution which would open the way to a UKIP breakthrough in 2015.
But remember politics is politics and none of it may happen. Nobody appears to know whether Scotland would have the right to elect MPs to Westminster in 2015 to sit until Independence was ratified in 2016, or whether they will be excluded. Constitutionally the 2015 Parliament should include Scotland and be dissolved in 2016 with new elections as a parliament for the remaining UK. But as Britain does not have a formal constitution and as the situation would be without precedent, it is likely we will use the tried and tested formula of making something up.