There is general agreement the Cameron’s defeat is an historic moment but exactly what kind of moment is unclear. Initially hopes are raised that having asserted the right of the European parliamentary majority to nominate the Presidential candidate for the European Commission , EU leaders will wake up to the very real prospect of Britain leaving and will fall over backwards to give Cameron what he needs, first to win the General Election in 2015 and then to win a referendum to stay in the EU on revised and better terms.
Unfortunately there may be an element of wishful thinking in this. Germany certainly is willing to help but not every country is and for changes to be agreed they have to be agreed by all. In the days of the small EEC dominated by France and Germany, deals were easily fixed. Now that there are twenty-eight members deals are not so easy. Moreover there is now the Euro. For that to survive, Europe has to go in the opposite direction to the way the UK wants. The Euro has to have more federalization of decision making and economic policy among its members. The UK wants less. There may be a possible solution for a Federalist Eurozone led by Germany, with a Confederate zone outside the Euro and led by Britain.
The situation is made more complex by the desire of the EU to expand eastwards, before it has reached either an accommodation with Russia or a deal for Russia to join. Britain now has to make up its mind where it is headed and with whom, a task made more complicated at this moment by the thought that the uncertainty may actually boost the Yes vote in Scotland.
So Junker has three mega problems to deal with, all of which are at opposite polarity to each other; Britain, the Euro and Russia. It should not be long before it becomes clear whether he is up to the job. It is worth concluding on a lesson of history. The Roman Empire, having absorbed all of Europe west to Britain, expanded ever further east until finally it got so big it split into two separate parts. The eastern part lasted nearly a thousand years longer than the west.