The contest for the outcome of the independence vote is becoming less certain. Not long ago it was pretty clear that Salmond and his cohorts did not have a coherent economic plan and this shortfall would prove decisive for the No campaign. However this is no longer the battleground. The currency is important but another front is opening up.
If UKIP does well in the European elections in May and tops the poll, as well it might, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw may take fright and assume that Britain will sooner or later vote to leave the EU. To the EU this could mean that it would suddenly find itself between two bookends, which may not always do its bidding; Russia in the east and Britain in the west. Moreover a Britain out of the EU would be less enthusiastic about NATO interventions, because its people are fed up with them. It would also be much more tolerant of Russia’s interests.
In that event, having Scotland back in the EU as an independent state would be a real advantage and it may pay to forget about separatist movements elsewhere and smooth Scotland’s path. The Scot Nats would be able to go into the final weeks of campaigning saying that Britain’s future in Europe is in doubt and the only way to secure Scotland’s economic prosperity is as an independent member of the EU. If Angela smiled at him, Salmond would be home and dry.
As for George Robertson’s intervention about Scottish independence causing the West to totter; it will, if anyone takes any notice, boost the Yes campaign more than the No.