Talking To Russia

There is now a chance for dialogue to begin with Russia that goes beyond telling her what she has to do, to gain re-admission to the diplomatic community, which for diverse reasons has been remarkably united to its opposition to events in Crimea. This opposition stems not so much from outrage at a violated principle, as from fear of breakaway movements within their own states. Typically the one country in the world most exposed to charges of hypocrisy, the UK, because of the status of Northern Ireland, the Falklands and Gibraltar, has been among the most strident. Nevertheless China abstained in the UN Security Council, so Moscow will realise it has some diplomatic ground to recover.

The chance for dialogue arises because now that the referendum has been held and the re-absorption of Crimea into Russia is all but complete, each side has a legal stand point. The West says it will not recognise the detachment of Crimea form the Ukraine and Moscow refuses to recognise the Kiev government. But both have happened and there are no realistic alternatives. Moscow is not going to walk from Crimea and the Kiev government will not resign. Both are de-facto. The way forward would be for the West and Kiev to accept that Crimea has gone, without recognising that it has, and for Moscow to talk to Kiev as the in situ government without recognising it.

Behind it all are the western fears that Putin is trying to reconstruct the Soviet empire and the fear in Moscow that NATO and the EU and hell bent on expanding ever eastwards to the Russian border. All this unnecessary fear could have been nipped in the bud if on the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia had been invited to join both.

But we are where we are. The West will eventually have to give Russia assurances that the Ukraine is not going to become a member of NATO, nor part of the EU, without a wider settlement which includes Russia itself. Moscow must assuage Western fears of a post Soviet advance westward. Meanwhile the rhetoric about economic sanctions grows shrill. As a debating point maybe, but the West needs to remember that in a real economic war it has more to lose than Russia. In the end Europe cannot prosper until it acknowledges that Russia is part of Europe. Without Russian energy and export opportunities, Europe would be in big recession. Germany has six thousand companies operating in Russia. If those are messed with, Germany is in economic trouble and if that happens the Euro is dead.

This does not mean links with the US should be severed. The point is that Russia is joined to Europe; America is across the Atlantic. The time for grandstanding is over and the time for thinking and measuring begins.

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