Russia’s premier Dmitry Medvedev spoke some truth when he said that the new authorities in the Ukraine lacked legitimacy and had achieved power through an armed mutiny. These are not words western diplomats would use to describe what has happened, but nevertheless a legitimate government, albeit heavy handed and unpopular, having been properly elected in a democratic process has been brought down by protesters, Egyptian style. This may be good or bad but it is not democracy and as we have seen before, rushed elections do not always produce a durable outcome in a society which allows the power of the street to override the authority of the ballot.
What is now critical is for everybody to hold back and accept that Russia and ethnic Russian Ukrainians have interests and rights which must be protected in just the same way as those on the other side who lean towards Europe. The era of power blocks in diplomacy is over. For over one hundred years the UK Foreign office has been trained in the notion of friends and enemies. This suited the post Napoleonic era which fell apart when Germany fell out of favour in the lead up to 1914. The rise of fascism and communism adapted well to the diplomatic model and operated with commendable judgement and restraint throughout the cold war.
Since the fall of the Berlin Wall the FCO and the US State Department seriously lost their touch, leading to one blunder upon another, with a trail of misconceived wars, failed states and revolutions turned sour in which western backed rebels appear to be the last people the west should want to be associated with. The modern world is not about power blocks; it is about interconnected people, factions, rivalries and revolutionaries, united in what they are against but divided about what they are for. It is so much easier to makes things worse, sometimes much worse, than to make them better.
What has happened in Ukraine is a tragedy at a human level with the guilt for the pointless loss of lives on the shoulders of both sides, though the security forces appear to have been the more violent, especially in the hours before the government fell. Now there must be reconciliation and reconstruction with the rights of all citizens guaranteed, including those who speak Russian. Any aid or encouragement from the EU must require that this is a primary objective of whatever government is formed by whomever, and as an absolute condition of any dialogue about association and non-humanitarian aid. The new government must recognise that the country has a border in the east as well as the west and that it has to rebuild a positive relationship with Russia, upon whose energy and trade it significantly depends.
Ukraine must demonstrate that it has a working model of democracy before there is any prospect of joining the EU. This will not be possible unless there is give and take on all sides of the split and the factions within it, which have brought the country to the brink. That will also require the EU and Russia to walk in step. Catherine Ashton will be kept busy. This surprising lady is more than up to the challenge.