The Ukraine is caught up in a political crisis arising out of its history as a country with a turbulent past and disagreement about its aspirations for the future. Its population is split between a majority in the east, mainly of Russian ethnicity who lean towards Moscow both culturally and economically, and a majority in the west of the country which do likewise to the EU. Disagreement over the President’s decision to stall plans to sign an association agreement with the EU has led to protests, occupations of government buildings and violent clashes with police. The country is beginning to sink into that ever increasing quagmire of states with dysfunctional government. Almost all such states have been subject to some kind of involvement with the West, either in direct military interventions, or support for rebel factions. Always these interventions are cloaked in the glowing mantle of support for democracy as the ideal form of government, which all should enjoy.
Unfortunately the somewhat naive generation of Western politicians now in power, overlook the key ingredients of democracy, without which it cannot function. These are the ability to strive towards and embrace consensus, the willingness to settle differences entirely through the ballot box at certain prescribed intervals, and the willingness of the losers in such elections to be governed by the winners.
If the divisions in society are about policy and priorities informed by variations in ideology, then democracy will stand a good chance of working, provided the electoral system allows for the emergence of a majority coalition. If the disagreements are not so much about policy but about divisions on ethnic or religious grounds, including sects or groups within religions, then agreement is all but impossible and general failure follows. The alternative is either dictatorship by a strong and often repressive group or a general collapse of central government authority.
That in itself brings even more suffering upon the people and to a far worse degree than the conditions which led to the initial protest. The Ukraine is not there yet, but it could happen if the utmost care is not taken to facilitate dialogue and reason. This should be the priority of international diplomacy of every stripe. It is the view of this Blog that speeches of the kind made by John Kerry today and visits by various European officials in support of the protesters are not helpful.
It is true that the President’s security forces appear to be guilty of excess. It is also true that many concessions have been made to the Opposition which should form the basis of progress. To respond with occupations of government buildings and the setting up of burning barricades may be assertive, but it is not, repeat not, democracy.