Yesterday’s unexpected vote rejecting the flawed policy so heavily driven forward by Cameron and Hague, was perhaps the most significant for a century, with repercussions which will travel far beyond these islands. The policy of confrontation and intervention which both the State Department and the Foreign Office have followed with such calamitous outcomes since 9/11 has finally crashed. Having egged a reluctant Obama on, Cameron has been forced by the weight of common sense to withdraw. This is a shock for the Americans and although without military significance, it will play to their increasingly sceptical public opinion. In a modern world the public communicate globally with friends and colleagues and they travel. Media is 24/7 and coverage is no longer just the national network. People are much better informed.
They know that after 9/11 Al’ Quaeda was holed up in Afghanistan. It was banned from Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. Now it is operating effectively in all five countries and as the de-facto ally of the West in its opposition to Assad. This is all the direct result of military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. All three countries are without governments in charge of events, either propped up, unstable or non existent. Yemen, Egypt and Lebanon are in political convulsions and Syria is rent by a terrible civil war, which could never have got going without the enthusiastic backing by the West of the rebels at the beginning. Strategically the whole policy has been a headlong dash into a cul-de-sac in the very location opposite to where we said we were going.
The British Parliament has for some years been held in little short of contempt by the public, following its abominable nativity in in backing the Bush/Blair wars and its acceptance of the infamous dossier which anyone with a scrap of understanding of the dynamics of the issue, could see was drivel. This betrayal was then followed by the expense scandal and the discovery that not only were these people inept, they also expected taxpayers to pay for holiday homes, cleaning out moats, homes for pet ducks et al.
But last night Parliament redeemed itself. It changed the course of history for the better. We cannot tell precisely how, but it is certain that whatever the outcome, it will be better than the consequences of yet another futile attempt to save lives by killing. Politically Cameron is very badly damaged. Hague too has taken a hit. The Special Relationship has taken a new turn. Soon it will be clear that it is one where the people of the one country influence those of the other and that the things they hold dear are not those their leaders promote. That could make the relationship very special indeed.