This blog has set these four countries, each in various stages of state failure, together because they share several common factors which many readers will be able readily to set out. There is one element which particularly concerns this blog. They are all, to a greater or lesser extent victims of the abject failure of Western foreign policy.
It is not necessary to re-examine the disaster of Iraq, though there is an obligation to reflect every day upon the suffering of its people caught in the crossfire of competing factions with a death toll now surpassing four figures in each month. Libya is off the radar but meanwhile the country is ruled in enclaves by armed militias. In Syria the Assad regime remains in power and its power is growing. The rebels are found to include not only Al-Qaeda, but people who eat the hearts of their enemies and beat then shoot to death teenagers who show marginal disrespect to the Prophet. And in Egypt? Well who can tell where that is headed, but just now it does not look good.
Certain common threads are emerging. Very large numbers, possibly a majority, in all of these countries would prefer an autocratic regime which delivers stability and prosperity in a secular environment which may curb political freedom, to a democracy which polarises and divides. There is evidence of this even in Turkey, a NATO member. There is also growing evidence that the rise of militant Islam has peaked.
The West will now need to ponder these things carefully. It needs to accept that for democracy to work there have to be certain conditions on the ground and institutions established which are accepted by a near universal consensus. If those conditions are not in effect, a democracy which polarises and governs for its own interests against the interests of its opponents, provides the worst kind of government of all. It is bound to lead to violence. There are now four countries in various stages of free fall, plus Tunisia and Lebanon becoming unstable. The only bright lights, and their brightness is relative to the pitch of the darkness, are the possibility of renewed dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians and the election of a more conciliatory President in Iran.
It is now quite clear that nobody got it quite right when assessing the potential of the upheavals wildly mis-named the Arab Spring, but Moscow and Beijing were nearest and London and Paris were furthest, from judging the reality of events.