Hitherto Euro sceptics have been somewhat detached from the political mainstream, mostly on the far right of the Tory party. Suddenly, post UKIP’s triumph at the local polls and riding high enough in all opinion polls to put paid to any hope of a Tory victory in 2015, some big names have begun to back unilateral withdrawal. It is impossible to say whether this will make a difference. It is also not certain that, even if UKIP did very well in 2015, when it came to the crunch, the majority in the country would vote to withdraw, any more that it is certain that Scots will vote for independence having elected a Scottish Nationalist government.
Whatever the outcome this Blog is of the view that the impact will be greater for Europe than for Britain. Britain, with or without Scotland, will make a go of it one way or another within Europe or outside. It has had an historic interest in keeping Europe balanced and has traditionally sided with the weaker combination of powers against the strong, opposing Spain, France and Germany in turn. All Europe knows that Britain is no more than a neighbour who takes a friendly interest; she is not part of the European family. Following the introduction of the Euro, that family must, in order to save it, draw ever closer together, pooling sovereignty and surrendering independence.
Europe likes government by regulation and its history tends to confirm that. European governments are not always effective and are sometimes very bad. Curbing their power so that they become less important as actual government is in the hands of impartial civil servants, who just want to make things work is an attractive prospect. On the other hand Britain, like the US, dislikes any form of government but considers democracy with full sovereignty the best option, and collective government by pan-continental regulation the very worst.
So on the face of it the introduction of the Euro and especially the pickle it is now in and what will have to be done to rescue it, makes Britain’s exit in everyone’s interests. Or does it? Or does the old issue of the balance of power once more loom? Because without Britain muttering in the corner, the EU will be dominated by its own super-power, Germany. If the French et al are happy with that they will refuse to negotiate meaningful terms and let Britain go. If they are not and they want to continue to enjoy the support and protection of the good neighbour across the channel, they will come up with a package the Brits will vote for.
Simple.