It may seem an odd reflection, but it is the view of this blog that in spite of Huhne/Price/Rennard and who did what and why and who knew what and when and all the subtexts of scandal washing over the Party,the Lib Dems are in a good place.
They had the guts to enter government, something of which for years most thought them incapable, and almost every aspect of coalition policy which is popular is there because of Lib Dem insistence. Their coalition partners, the Tories, are in terrible trouble. They are split over social values and Europe and their economic policy is stalled. Cameron’s great economic speech has gone the way of Osborne’s last budget, mired in mistakes and confusion. Both were a disaster. Now Vince Cable, who many regard as having the best grasp of economic reality, is openly opposing the Treasury’s position.
Then there is UKIP. Nigel Farrage is fast becoming a kind of English Alex Salmond. He has already made enough progress with his party to guarantee that the Tories cannot win a majority on their own in 2015, but his effect on the LibDems own supporters will be small, because the Lib Dems are unashamedly pro EU and unlikely to vote for a party which wishes to leave. But UKIP’s appeal to those older backward looking Tories who do, will make it easier for Clegg’s party to hold onto their southern seats and maybe even gain some, to offset likely losses in the north.
There is more. It UKIP gets up enough steam to win seats there is an obvious possibility of a right wing Tory/UKIP coalition, but a Lib Dem/Labour government would be likely to have more seats and votes. There is one joker in the pack.
If the Scots vote for independence in 2014, everything changes.