It is one thing to fight a bye-election in a seat vacated by the resignation of Chris Huhne, a former minister whose political career has collapsed following a guilty plea to a charge of perverting the course of justice. At best it is a difficult challenge to hold such a seat. To then discover that the former top official of the party is accused of sexual impropriety (which he hotly denies) and that the party leader may have known about it at the time and done nothing (which he also hotly denies) is yet another thing and perhaps one thing too many.
The difficulty with organisational crises based on historic accusations by people against another, is the ‘who knew what and when’ element. This tends to prolong the media interest and open new lines of suspicion. Thus there is little chance this will all die down by polling day. Without the Rennard story, the very strong Lib Dem organisation with its loyal following in Eastleigh, might well have been on course to win. The new scandal makes that less likely, but not impossible. The timing of these latest allegations could not have been worse for the Lib Dems. Or better for the Tories.