Jeremy Hunt has never been a strong minister at cabinet level. He is affable and charming, but in a corner he is apt to be unconvincing. Whether he will be able to cling on depends in part on what Rupert Murdoch says today. It is quite clear that the old strictures regarding how to remain distant and impartial when making quasi-judicial decisions were, in the case of BSkyB, given a liberal interpretation by Mr Hunt’s department.
There is now a wider problem for the Tories. They are in a crisis of perception, arising out of a string of policy, presentational and personal errors of judgement, which has shredded the government’s initial reputation of being fair, focussed and competent. This is developing into a crisis of leadership, not just of Cameron’s own ability, but that of his party, to lead the nation.
The Tory led coalition is now well and truly off the rails. It is entirely possible it will not get back on the track. Once you get talk of ‘fight backs’ you know that recovery is almost impossible. This is very bad news for the Tories. Only under Thatcher did their governments achieve a lasting outcome. The Heath and Major governments both fell apart. Even if this one stabilises, it will look ramshackle for the rest of its term and will be politically in a bear market, when its failures receive more media coverage than its successes.
The Tory remedy has traditionally been to change leader. There are quite a few ex-leaders around. Major, Hague, Duncan-Smith, Howard. If they dump Cameron, who is there? Possibly Hague for a second go, maybe Davis, perhaps even the elderly and pro euro Clarke. Could the Coalition survive such an upheaval? Doubtful. Could a general election be avoided? Even more doubtful.
So things have become a pretty big screw up. Not long ago Britain had one of the most stable and focused governments in the West, enjoying a wide consensus among voters. All of that has gone. For the Tories even more has gone. They have lost that magic aura of being the natural party of government. They now collectively look clueless and individually shallow and detached. The first stage of any fight back must be to look as if they know what they are doing and that they care about the people they are doing it to.