There do seem to be some hopeful signs of rebel progress and battle fatigue of the Gaddafi regime. The Colonel remains in power nevertheless and gave the South African President short shrift in his latest peace effort. By boxing themselves in with declarations that Gaddafi must go, the international community whether in the guise of the UN, G8, NATO has guaranteed that he will hang on to the bitter end. This will prolong the conflict. That will harm more civilians.
This blog remains of the view that these military adventures without a direct threat to our own national security, or one so tenuous as to be meaningless, are a bad idea. Libya is no exception. That said and given that there is this refusal to open a political door for Gaddafi to exit to retirement, there is no other course but to step up the NATO campaign to make it easier for the rebels to advance and more difficult for government forces to stop them. If the rebels do get to Tripoli and this is by no means certain, it is unclear how they will be received or what support they have there. Capturing the Libyan capital by fighting from street to street and house to house is a non-starter, if protecting innocent civilians remains any part of the NATO plan.
This is the problem and has been all along. Any escalation overcomes the initial threat but leads to fresh ones and so on ad infinitum. Nevertheless there is a new feeling across the international spectrum that end games are in play. First Osama Bin Laden, then Ratko Mladic, both sought for years. Suddenly Gaddafi looks vulnerable. He may resist NATO, but can he resist the tide of history? If his army begins to doubt him, then the game is up. The Russians, at the G8, offered to mediate a conclusion to his reign. Maybe the end game is theirs to play. If that does not work, there is nothing left but to smash Gaddafi’s army until it refuses to fight for him any longer. That may be, from the air alone, easier said than done.