David Cameron has scored well to be the first leader to visit Egypt in the post Mubarak transition. What is happening across the Arab autocracies of the Middle East is truly remarkable, but also predictable. It is of profound historic importance. It has a philosophical element. It demonstrates what so many have said so often. The war in Iraq was futile, as is the war in Afghanistan.
In my book I suggested that the better way of dealing with Saddam Hussein would have been to lift sanctions after the first gulf war, to enable life for the ordinary people to return to normal. In time they would have overthrown their dictator on their own. By depriving them of medicines and other essentials, the power of the regime was much strengthened. A second war created chaos and suffering which is far from over, even now.
For reasons of self interest, the only rational driver of foreign policy, the West was willing to do business with Arab governments which fell far short of their democratic prescription. Now their people, empowered by modern communications and mindful that no regime can survive the wrath of its own citizens, have set about toppling them one by one. Gaddafi hangs by a thread having looked, after Mubarak, the strongest of the lot.
The implications of this are considerable and far reaching. A complete re-appraisal of the whole dynamics of the Middle East will be required when the upheavals are complete. Until then the West will have to sit on the sidelines, side with the people, condemn violence by security forces and advise its erstwhile friends they have a choice; reform or go. Some, maybe most, possibly all, have no choice. They will have to go. The writing on the wall was the collapse of European Communism. Only China read it. That is why it has been steadily introducing reform and why it is the second economic power of the world. It will adjust again now. We will need to do the same.
Above all we need to learn a fundamental truth. Foreign military intervention does not work in a modern world. It damages the interests of the perpetrator more than the enemy. However bad a regime, it is impossible to liberate a country from itself. Only its own people can do that and when they are ready, as we now can see, they do.