The Falklands and the Retired Admirals
A group of very distinguished retired Navy grandees, one an ex- minister, have written to the Times complaining that the scrapping of the out of date Harrier force places the Falklands at risk from invasion. There are two issues here. One political, one military. They are wrong on both.
Let us deal with the politics first. I have never, having examined the history, been convinced that the Falklands areBritish beyond challenge, or that Argentina’s claim is without merit. Many people across the world think likewise, especially and crucially many Americans. I supported the war to take them back following Argentina’s ill judged invasion of 1982 and joined in the celebration of a hugely successful campaign, which showed British forces at their heroic and ingenious best. I did so, however, with a caveat. It was that we should use the victory and authority that it gave us to find a resolution to the dispute which recognised both the interests of Britain, but also those of Argentina. Sadly none of that happened. We just put our heads in the sand. Thus another invasion by another weak Argentinian government in trouble at home is always possible, though after the last one, unlikely.
If it comes we will have few allies, though one or two critical ones in South America. This brings us to the military point. That war will be fought by different weapons in a different way. It will surprise readers to hear that out of the shambolic muddle which is our Ministry of Defence, we are emerging as one of the top military powers on earth, not on land but on the sea and not by mass but by technological stealth. We are also a cyberpower.
The age of the giant carrier group is not over to project political power, but it is over to fight a sophisticated war. We now have the Type 45 Daring class destroyers, which are the world’s most advanced surface warships with an unmatched air/missile defence cababilty. They can detect and track simultaneously every airliner taking off at any time from every airport in Europe and can engage nearly 40 targets simultaneously. The Astute class submarines can hear from home waters a ship leaving New York harbour and are themselves undetectable. They can listen to all forms of spoken traffic, whether mobiles or whatever and carry advanced cruise missiles which can hit land or sea targets. Put bluntly they could penetrate the defences and sink an entire U.S carrier battle group.
Argentine planes would be shot down before they left their own airspace, all their airfields and military installations would be destroyed and any troops who did manage to land because of surprise, would be isolated and cut off. All Argentina’s communications would be disabled by cyber attack, its economy, power and utilities shut down. In all of this ageing Harriers, not without losses last time, would have no part to play at all. The Admirals are hopelessly out of date and out of touch. They also seem to be out of the loop. I wonder why.
As I have already said we are not, and never have been, a land power. The difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan testify to this. But we are and remain a sea power. We are a sea power most as a force on the sea, not a naval ancilliary to an army. This is how we built our empire and how we could not be beaten by the Spanish, by Napoleon, by the Kaiser or by Hitler. More by luck than judgement and by a leap of technology, we are again a sea power and that is the power which will defend us and our interests. The Coalition has cherry picked the key projects which sustain that power and, coupled with the continent frying capacity of Trident, make it awesome. Those silly new aircraft carriers are irrelevant. Hopefully we will flog them to the French. Or even to Argentina. They will be very easy for us to sink.
At the end of the day we have to reach an accommodation with Argentina by negotiation. These islands are on their doorstep but are the most far flung survivors of the defunct British Empire. There may be oil in volume offshore. Argentina is fundamentally an ally and friend with close family, cultural and business ties with Britain going back generations. A way forward can be found if we try and it is in our interests to do so and especially if we want to protect them. It is no longer a military issue. Let us not dwell so much in the past that we make it become one again.