Local elections are usually of interest to politicians but to few others. This time things are a bit different. Because on the same day are elections for both Scottish and Welsh devolved governments and there is a by-election the Tories are hoping to win.
Some evidence is emerging that Labour is closing the yawning opinion poll gap with the Tories and that the sleaze accusations are beginning to stick to Boris’s image. The perceived wisdom, shared by this blog, that Boris lovers know he is a rogue, but they like his politics, may be in for a shock. Note may be, not will be.
The day will also be critical for the future of the Union. If Scotland votes decisively to back the parties which want a second independence referendum, that will encourage the Welsh separatists to think the unthinkable and very much frighten the Unionists in Ulster. They are already in turmoil with Arlene’s ousting and Brexit chaos, forcing many businesses there to look south to the Republic, rather than east to England. That is already loosening the Unionist grip on Ulster’s political traditions.
But if Boris wins Hartlepool, gains seats in the English elections and the Tories do well in Scotland and Wales, he will be well nigh untouchable, no mater how many inquires into his money, his outbursts and his wallpaper are ongoing.