With the Manifestos all out, the contest will begin to move beyond the soundbite/ cheap headline stage to real issues. If the Tories manage to hold the Brexit line, that is getting it done is everything and little else matters, they will win a majority. At the moment polls show them on course for this. But none of the polls reflect any of the manifestos, because they only begin to break through during the doorstep campaign, which is only now starting in earnest.
If the big issue becomes ‘what kind of country do we want to live in?’ Labour will win enough to form a government, even if with SNP support. They have a lot of ground to make up, but they also have a lot of people on the ground. They also have a big following among young voters who are registering in droves. None of that shows up in opinion polls. Yet. But it must be showing through in the last week if Labour is to have a chance.
The Lib Dems are probably doing a lot better than people think. If Remainers who really are passionate about staying in the EU flock to their colours in any numbers, there could be quite an upset on the night. Maybe not so many Lib Dem seats won, as Tory seats lost. Remember over 6 million signed the online petition to revoke Article 50. It would be odd if they now voted for Johnson.
The Brexit party is reduced to little more than a spoiler group. But make no mistake, they could spoil everything.