There is something odd about the current US policy in the Middle East. It pays lip service to the notion of a peace deal for Israel and the Palestinians, but its actions make that ever less likely. It is mobilising formidable forces to confront what it describes as an Iranian threat, but by scrapping the nuclear deal it demonstrated extraordinary bad faith as a treaty partner, worsening relations which had been improving. Nevertheless it is the Iranian backed militias and Russian forces which have proved decisive allies of the US in the military defeat of IS in Syria and Iraq. Saudi Arabia meanwhile has been in part responsible for the humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen and it was Saudi cash which fired up both IS and Al Qaeda at their inception.
So what should be refined diplomacy backed up by military readiness, combined to achieve worthy political objectives which bring lasting peace to a traumatised region, is instead an incomprehensible muddle, without any clear goals and a shocking abundance of risks. The truth may be something like this. John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, whatever they say in public, are in private hell bent on regime change in Iran and everything else to them is secondary. Trump meanwhile, with his dislike of foreign wars and an in tray full of immigration issues, a glaring failure in Venezuela, an escalating trade war with China, unfinished business with north Korea and an election coming up next year, is not so sure.
For once many will hope a more cautious Trump gets the upper hand over both the hawks in his administration, as well as his mercurial and unpredictable self.