Let us begin with the fact. Forget the politics for a moment. In law, both domestic and international, we crash out of the EU in 14 days time. Nothing which has so far happened in parliament has stopped that. We are on track and on target to crash out with no deal and there are many in parliament who hope we do. Worse, there are some in the government who agree with them.
The threat of what business, the unions and everybody under 35 thinks would be a calamity, will cause the ERG nationalist wing of the Tory party and their buddies in the DUP, a party which positively reeks of prejudice of every sort and kind, when faced with the prospect of that fact in law driving a halt to the whole Brexit process, possibly even for ever, will cause them to fall in line behind May and back her deal next Tuesday to save Brexit. Even if in their eyes it is neither perfect nor pure. If that sounds convoluted it is, but that is the Downing Street plan. If it fails it is impossible to predict what happens next.
It is worth noting that the government motion to delay Brexit (non binding in law) last night was carried by a good majority because Labour voted with it. It is also the case that Labour’s own plan for a customs union which would eliminate the need for an Irish Backstop, was defeated once by a much smaller margin than either of the two landslide defeats which May’s deal has suffered, in spite of the fact that Labour has nearly 60 fewer MPs than the Tories.
Last of all think about this. Such is the shattered state of the Tory party in government that several members of the Cabinet no less, abstained from supporting the government in its critical vote last night, which it won with Labour’s help. But here comes the best bit. This is a real jewel. The cabinet minister who wound up the debate with a rousing speech in support of the motion, voted against it. No it was not Grayling. It was the Brexit Secretary, in charge of the whole thing. Or so it is said. He has the car and stuff anyway. I have forgotten his name.
If you can see a chink of light in all this, you certainly have sharp eyes.