Like Trump in the US who carries on undamaged by scandal, mishap, revelation and resignation, so May survives as head of a government of undreamed of incompetence at almost every level. The Brexit negotiations have been mismanaged, miscalculations abound, wishful thinking has become the preferred modus, yet she carries on. There is an explanation, although it is not one which any sane person should wish to hear. Chaos. Political chaos. On such a scale that even the process of fixing a new leader or dissolving this chaotic parliament is no longer straightforward or capable of reliable delivery.
But, and there is now a but, at last she has been forced, albeit after a tumultuous cabinet meeting, to confront the ERG. Although twenty of them voted against the Cooper Amendment and many more abstained in an Alamo style last stand, they were beaten foursquare on Wednesday, both by the passage of the amendment itself and by May’s mega U-Turn announcements before it. There is now a chance that Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, can come back from the EU with a fig leaf cover-up of the infamous backstop, to get her Withdrawal Agreement through the meaningful vote when it happens, rumours suggesting sooner rather than later.
It will not be straight or clean. Some ERGs will defect from their nationalist friends and vote with May in fear of losing Brexit altogether. Some Labour members will vote with the government because they also think that Brexit will be lost in a storm of delaying Article 50 and a People’s Vote. Most of these hate Corbyn. With the rest of the Tory Party voting en masse with May, she might just pull it off. In a free vote she would without any trouble, but if Labour whips against, it is less certain. There is also the question of the DUP. This is a party founded on the principal of being opposed to everything. So far there are no hints of anything going on in Brussels which will satisfy them. If they vote against and are beaten, they will withdraw from backing May in power. So May could secure an orderly Brexit, but lose the power to govern.
That will give Corbyn his election. It must be hoped that there are enough in Labour who want him to win it.