Yesterday was a game changer. And because it was unexpected it was very British. It was also a major victory for May. But it is not a beginning of the end moment. More an end of the beginning, to paraphrase Churchill. In a series of votes on amendments in which many had expected a string of government defeats, the government won all but just the one, a critical one, which gave victory to the majority in the House against a crash Brexit, thus removing the national suicide threat from the negotiating platform. Even more important parliament voted on what it was actually for. That is the game changer. The fact it is for something which cannot be delivered is, in the context of restoring coherent governance to our country, not important. And here is the thing. If parliament can maintain discipline and work more or less within its proper bounds of government and opposition, instead of a brawl of multiple factions, the impossible might become deliverable.
As we all know the Irish backstop is the pill the nationalist Tories and their DUP friends(!) cannot swallow. But they have in effect swallowed everything else in May’s deal. Therefore there is potentially a majority for it. What the voting figures showed yesterday was that there were about twenty Tory MPs willing to vote against the government and slightly fewer Labour MPs willing to vote with it, which could very well enable May to win her final vote. For its part the EU has declared there will be no reopening of the Withdrawal Agreement, especially the Irish Backstop.
But if there is a crash out because the EU will not play, then there will be a hard border between the two parts Ireland and moreover the whole logistics of the Republic’s trade with the EU will be disrupted, as most of it passes through the UK. Add to that the high volume of its exports going into the UK tariff free will be subject to duties, making them a good deal less competitive. So what the EU refuses to give in over, it will actually get. It might not be a full custard pie moment, but it is not far short.
However both the DUP and hard Brexiteers know that if that hard border does return, Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. This would trigger an eventually irresistible demand for a reunification vote for Ireland. That could finally lead to the loss to the UK of Ulster. This blog would not be sorry, but it would certainly fatally damage both the DUP and the Tory right wing. So both sides know they will have to give a little to gain a fudge which leaves the essence of the Withdrawal Agreement intact but offers enough to get it through the Commons.
And there is a new dynamic. Up till now the EU has held firm across all 27 States, in its parliament and governing council. The Commission reports to a united political force. In contrast London has stunned the world with its collapse of coherent governance and its chaotic splits, factions and rows. Nobody could fathom what it wanted because it did not know itself.
But at the critical hour it looks as if London might stop trying to copy the worst of Athens or Rome and become itself once again. United and clear cut in its agenda. And perhaps in the face of that, the unity of the EU will crack. That is what May and her allies hope for. It is also how Britain has historically won its wars. By losing the opening battles but winning the last. This eccentricity is how it remains, while no longer a world power, nevertheless in spite of everything, a power in the world.