I am sorry to have been silent through such a turbulent period, but I have to give priority to my fiction project. But I follow everything that is going on and here are a few thoughts.
BREXIT. It is now certain that we are heading for a soft Brexit. First, because nothing else will get through parliament and second because anything else is administratively impossible. The days that Brexiteers hark back to are gone forever like their own youth, as most are elderly like me. This is because in those days there was no EU. A relatively small common market in Western Europe, divided by the Iron Curtain from remaining Europe to the east. The US and Britain dominated the West and the Soviets dominated the East. But now America’s position on most things is hard even for Americans to read and we at loggerheads with them on several issues. Meanwhile Europe has grown into a huge economic power and a political union which stretches to the Russian border, without precedent in history. So even if we think we have left it will only be in our dreams, because in our waking hours the EU will infect every nook and cranny of our daily lives lives.
SALISBURY I agree with all that has been said about the nerve agent poisoning and Russia, subject to the Corbyn provisos that we must have definitive proof of their direct involvement to cement our case and even if we get that we must continue to engage with Russia and Putin. In fact as I have said for years there are more common interests between us than there are issues which divide us. One of the reasons the Tory government has been so assertive has been the hope that it could be a Falklands moment for May. Thatcher was heading for electoral defeat until Argentina invaded the Falklands. May was being crushed by the arguments within her party between hard and soft, leave and remain and was weak in her negotiations in Europe because her government’s future was uncertain. Even Trump could not make up his mind whether she was worth bothering with. Now all that has changed. She has the full backing of both the EU and the US in her stance on Russia and both have been reminded that Britain does have red lines and gets ultra nasty if they are crossed. So Washington, Brussels and the Kremlin are at this moment rethinking their assessment that the UK was no longer a serious player.
BOLTON and BORIS. The news that the highly regarded Gen. H R McMaster has been replaced by the super hawk John Bolton, who wants to nuke everybody, will shock loads and terrify many. However keep calm. It is not ideal that in a democracy no less than three generals run the key departments of the Trump administration. It was necessary in the early days to bring order, but civilians are better. Bolton is in step with Trump’s hard line instincts on Iran and North Korea, but very much out of step with Trump’s cozy relationship with Putin. Coupled with the replacement of Tillerson with Pompeo it will at least bring some order to the disarray which has been America’s foreign policy. But as with everything in Trump land, nothing is forever. As for Boris, if May wants to be taken seriously on the world at large, she must use her new found authority and sack this clown. Britain needs a wise head in the Foreign Office now. Not a showman self publicist who tells porkies when it suits him.