The news that Trump is about to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel should surprise no one. He promised this in his campaign and thus bought himself support from the Jewish lobby, which had fallen out badly with Obama. If it was promised it must be delivered whether you like the policy or not. Because what undermines democracy, much more than foreign hackers, fake news and leaks of every sort and kind, is the now widespread practice of campaign promises which are not delivered because they were not meant to be, cannot be, or were undeliverable from the very beginning. It is this form of political corruption and it is the untrustworthy politician who undermines democracy. Nothing else can, because democracy is too strong.
There will be a lot of protests and perhaps some violence, but actually little will change because Jerusalem has been operating as the Israeli capital for years. It is only the dance of veils, which is the best way to describe so much diplomacy today, that pretends the capital is still Tel Aviv. And this pretense has failed to advance the peace process in this number one hotspot one iota. So it can hardly matter to abandon it.
At one level Trump looks to be on a bit of a roll with things falling into place. He has at last advanced the tax cut legislation to the point when soon he will have something to sign, he has won his travel ban judgement in the Supreme Court and he looks like winning the Senate seat in Alabama, even by a candidate with social and religious attitudes of medieval vintage and morals alleged to involve paedophilia. The evident tension between the White House and the State Department is rumoured to be near resolution with the upcoming departure, on friendly terms, of Rex Tillerson and his replacement with Mike Pompeo. That would help to get more of the ducks of this somewhat wayward administration, in a row. All of this is set down as a political assessment. It is not about whether you approve or oppose any of it.
But there is of course that elephant in the room. The Russia investigation. This is not quite what it seems and much deeper than it looks. It is politically motivated and legally driven. So far only the outriders have been picked off. But the circle is closing. Sooner or later Trump will have to stand and fight. Then it will be seen that the collusion investigation is a kind of smokescreen. What really matters is the secrets in Deutsche Bank and their links to the Kremlin. It is upon the outcome of that box being opened that Trump’s survival depends.