As usual when some crisis bursts in Europe, political has-beens tour the media declaring the biggest crisis since WWII and in this case ‘a new Spanish Civil War’. Unfortunately these folk of yesteryear, often rather tarnished by mishaps of their own, cannot earn appearance fees by being sensible, because they are past their sell by date and worthless without the bloodthirsty angle.
Catalonia is indeed a problem but it is not by any means out of control. The Spanish government’s declaration that the ringleader of the independence theatricals can stand in the new elections in December shows confidence in democracy and a lack of vindictiveness. There may be a complication if the Madrid courts have locked him up for sedition meanwhile, but the spirit looks positive. It also reflects the fact that the vast majority of Spaniards and all the main political parties want Spain to remain whole. As does the rest of the world. But, and this is critical, so do most Catalans.
Catalonia is prosperous because it is part of Spain, part of the EU and a good place to do business on a global scale. If it became independent on a unilateral declaration it would be none of these things. It would be out of Europe, out of Spain, unrecognised by any other country, its economy crippled and the last place any meaningful corporation would put its headquarters. So it is clear than none of the separatists have thought the consequences of their dream through. The reason for that is their attachment to independence is an emotional experience rather than a practical state of being.
There may be some violence between now and the general election for a new Catalan parliament on Dec.21st or on that day, but everybody hopes not. Because this is not the 1930s. Then Europe was still mired in the aftermath of the great depression, backward socially and economically, with two powerful ideologies, armed to the teeth and competing for power. Fascism championed first by Italy and then by a resurgent Germany, and Communism championed by Stalin’s Soviet Russia. As war broke out between the rickety Republican government and an insurgency backed by most of the regular army and led by one of its Generals, Franco, the Nazis and the Soviets piled in with volunteers and weapons on an industrial scale. Hitler backed Franco and sent the Condor Legion, Stalin sent his best General with volunteers and the latest Soviet weapons to bolster the left wing Republic.
In the 1930s Europe was without unity or common purpose. America had its back turned. Britain was gorging on appeasement pie. But today Europe, of which Spain is a part, stands as one in the greatest political union since the fall of Rome, it enjoys a level of general prosperity previously unknown, there is no world power willing to arm a rebellion, Spain is a member of NATO and America has several military bases in the country.
So unless everybody loses their reason, this political crisis, brought on by hot headed idealism rather than ideological or ethnic conflict, will resolve itself by democratic means in due course. Meanwhile the message must be Keep Calm and Carry on.