Labour has now declared that its manifesto will offer a completely different programme for negotiating Brexit, which will be much nearer soft than hard, placing continued access to the single market and customs union high on the priority list. This is the first time since June that any meaningful challenge has been mounted against the Conservatives over Brexit and adds to the already significant threat from the Lib Dems in Remain leaning seats. The Lib Dems and UKIP are the only parties internally united in their attitude to Brexit. Both Labour and the Tories are split, so each has had to reach an internal compromise to come up with an external offer.
In May’s case she has gone for a hard Brexit, with hopes of some concessions from the EU in the face of her tough approach, because to do anything else would cause uproar among her hard core right wing. The benefit to her is that, as she is pursuing hard Brexit, about three million of the four million who voted for UKIP last time will back her. There is evidence that this is happening in the opinion polls and in part explains the surge to nearly 50% in some of them. By playing her Brexit zeal in Leave voting Wales she hopes to pick up seats from Labour and by playing Unionism in Scotland she hopes to pick up another clutch of seats there. Labour has disappeared from the political map in Scotland and it is the SNP and Conservatives who lead in the polls north of the border, one pro independence, the other pro Union.
By proclaiming for a soft Brexit with some work permit based immigration control, Labour becomes much more attractive to Remain voters worried about their jobs ex EU. By declaring anti- establishment roots and majoring on all the failures brought on by austerity, Corbyn’s team hope to pull out the five million non-voting former Labour supporters, whose daily lives are a struggle, but who care little about Brexit either way. If Corbyn and May are both only partially successful in their plans, the result could be a lot closer than people think. Either way. For the moment it looks as if May is home and dry, but this is because hers is the only agenda which people know about. The time to watch the polls is when the campaign is in full swing, about three weeks out from polling day. If you see movement then something could be afoot. If May’s lead holds steady then she is on course to victory. Except in these political times nothing is certain. The election is one May has to win. Any softening of her Brexit plan could lose her the UKIP vote. Without that she could lose everything.