Eight Days to Go
I have looked at the latest polls. The best for the Conservatives usually pop up in the Murdoch press. Today’s Times works out at Con 292 Lab 246 LD 83. The worst, ComRes, works out at Lab 285 Con 244 LD 92. Another, YouGov, is almost the same, Lab 286 Con 248 LD 87. In all of these polls the Tories have the highest percentage of votes 33-36. The LD’s have 28-29 and Lab 27-29. So all the figures are pretty constant with the Tories coming second in seats in two out of three. This makes Cameron’s opposition to meaningful electoral reform all the more surprising.
However you look at these figures, or indeed the mood in the country, there is no sign of a majority opening up for any one party. There has been a slight Tory recovery in one poll, Labour seems to have steadied and the Lib Dem surge has taken hold but is not advancing. Tomorrow’s debate may produce a breakthrough, but if like last week, will change the position very little. The joker in the pack is tactical voting. This is hard to assess as it is as yet unclear whether the purpose is to keep the Tories out, defeat Labour or help the Lib Dems on their crusade for change. Each of the parties is now fighting hard for its credibility. We shall have to watch for clues.