It is clear that a kind of war has broken out between President Trump and the various US intelligence agencies, of which there are quite a few. He rails into them on twitter and they, according to reports, withhold information from him. This is leading to an aura of turmoil surrounding the White House which provides exotic story lines for the media, who are also on Trump’s blacklist. This results in the media relying on leaks and whistle blowers courting the media. That in turn leads to news dominated by sensation, when in fact much more interesting things are happening. Here are some worth knowing about.
On defence: The new Secretary for Defense. ex-General Mattis has told North Korea that if it gets it into its head to launch nuclear armed missiles either upon the US or its allies in the region, it will wipe North Korea from the map within hours. Clinton said something similar and had little trouble. Obama held back and had nothing but problems.
On NATO: Gen Mattis said that the days when Europe went on a jolly while the US taxpayer picked up the tab for its defence were over. If it wished to enjoy America’s full backing it would have to pay its fair share, i.e. at least 2% of GDP per member state. Failure would cause the US commitment to be reduced. This is very good news. I have always thought the reliance on America ridiculous and damaging to a proper strategic analysis of where Europe’s interests lie and who Europe’s enemies actually are. Europe should pay 70% of the cost of NATO and its military and the US 30%. At present it is the reverse.
On Israel: Trump’s abandonment of the two state peace plan is not as complete as reported. He said that he would accept either one or two states, whichever the parties agreed on. That is quite different when you think about it. The idea of a wider peace settlement involving a clutch of Arab countries looks promising. His public request to Netanyahu to hold back on new settlements was telling. Trump wants a deal but he will demand more of Israel than Israel had expected, while pledging his support as he does so.
On Trade: The talks with Canada appeared to go well when the Canadian PM came to Washington. The nuance here was that deals need to be between countries, not blocks. Expect more of this.
Something must be done about what is now widely called the turmoil at the White House. Cabinet posts have to be filled with credible candidates and staff have to work as talented individuals in one team, not opposing factions, scoring off each other. Statements made to the media in official briefings cannot be repeated the next day with a different meaning. As for the intelligence and law enforcement agencies; either peace must be made or else they should be turned upside down, inside out and reconstituted in a different form. They are not a state within a state and must understand that in a democracy government agencies must dance to the tune of whatever government the people choose to elect.