That is a good question. Because since the June vote and the leisurely pace of the government coming to terms with the complexities of its exit task, for which no preparations whatever had been made, the world has changed almost beyond recognition. So the environment for the negotiations bears little connection to that which prevailed when their need was triggered.
First let us consider the home front. There is no agreement yet within the government about the specification of what it is they want; hard Brexit with immigration control, no fees and no membership of the free market favoured by some, or softer Brexit which bargains some freedom of movement with some access to the single market, especially for cars and financial services, involving some fees and some oversight by the EU Supreme Court. So far these issues remain unresolved within the cabinet and its structure of committees. There are reports of tempers rising.
In parliament itself there is no majority for Brexit at all, but there is a recognition that the majority decision by the people to leave the EU must be allowed to stand. There is nevertheless a widespread belief that while the voters backed Leave as a principle, they of necessity have left the details to be worked out by their own sovereign parliament. Unfortunately May had other ideas, namely that Article 50, which is irrevocable, could be triggered by her on her own, using the Royal Prerogative. Her intention to rule by decree was subject to legal challenge and the High Court said No , she could not do that, and the triggering must be supported by a parliamentary vote in favour. Stubborn as she is, she has appealed to the Supreme Court and we shall not know until after Christmas whether we live in a full Parliamentary democracy or not.
The faint hearted may think that is quite enough to cope with, especially if you are not sure what you want. Wanting ‘the best deal for the British people’ is as vacuous a platitude as have a nice day. But then along comes Trump, the U.S. President whom everybody said could not happen. He wants to end globalization in its present format, loves Putin, thinks NATO is way past its sell by date, is anti-elitism, ant-establishment anti-the status quo and wants to reset everything everywhere. As yet details are scant, but they will gradually emerge. Meanwhile May had to wait for her phone call until he had spoken to Uncle Tom Cobley and all, but the first foreign political leader to be invited to talks in New York as the President Elect gets busy on the stuff of forming a government, is, yes I know but it’s true, Nigel Farage. One dare not even imagine the atmosphere in Number Ten when this news came through.
Wow. But it goes on. In the EU Merkel, Hollande, and Renzi are all up for election in 2017, in the midst of our Brexit negotiations. Marine LePen, the Far Right outsider, now looks a credible prospect for winning the French presidency. She loves Trump, Putin and Brexit and is minded to Frexit. As are various fringe anti-EU anti-globalization parties all across the EU, who either may win or win enough to give Brussels the fright of its life. In other words it is no longer impossible that negotiations will be taking place with an organisation which is itself unravelling and will either have to fully Federalise within a properly democratic structure in which the hated Commission is shut down, or de-centralise to return to its old format of a customs union among friendly states. We may not know exactly what we are withdrawing from nor what we hope to have a future relationship with.
But there is hope. Trump likes Britain. His mother was Scottish. He has property up there. He will be likely to offer us some sort of trade deal to replace the EU. And the Chinese are keen too. So if we can cut deals with the world number one economy and the world number two, the rest will take care of itself? Maybe. We must hope so. If Hammond abandons austerity and embarks on a Trump style economic stimulus, the future begins to take shape. If he tinkers at the margin but sticks broadly to the path mapped out by Osborne, then there is another bump in the road ahead. There will have to be a change of government.
Oh, and keep an eye on Nigel Farage.